After a decade of mesmerising world leaders, subduing his rivals and eking out dramatic election victories, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future is suddenly in doubt.
With near-final results from Israel's election on Tuesday, he has been left well short of the parliamentary majority he had sought — not only to continue in power but also to fend off a looming corruption indictment.
With over 90% of the votes counted late Wednesday, challenger Benny Gantz's centrist Blue and White party captured 33 seats in the 120-seat parliament, to 32 seats for Netanyahu's conservative Likud.
That leaves neither party poised to control a majority coalition with their smaller allies, leaving maverick politician Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party, as the key power broker. Lieberman has called for a broad unity government with the two major parties.
"Judging by the present situation assessment, Netanyahu is no longer capable of winning an election in Israel. This story is over," said Yossi Verter, political commentator for the Haaretz daily.
Such forecasts might be seen by some as premature. But it appears that Netanyahu's political instincts, once deemed impeccable, led to some questionable decisions that came back to hurt him in the latest campaign.
Netanyahu, who turns 70 next month, has traditionally relied on a stable majority of ultra-Orthodox Jewish religious and hard-line nationalist parties. That alliance fell apart following elections in April when Lieberman, a longtime ally turned rival, refused to join a new coalition with religious partners.
Lieberman, a hawk like Netanyahu on security issues but also fiercely secular, said ultra-Orthodox parties had gained too much influence. Just short of a parliamentary majority, Netanyahu was forced to take the unprecedented step of holding a second election in a year.
Looming over the campaign were Netanyahu's legal woes. Israel's attorney general has recommended indicting him on bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges in a series of corruption scandals, pending a hearing scheduled in early October.
Netanyahu had hoped to capture a narrow coalition of hard-line parties that would grant him immunity from prosecution.
He embarked on a campaign of stunts and promises aimed at shoring up his base. Borrowing tactics from the political playbook of his friend, President Donald Trump, he lashed out at the media, police, judiciary and election commission, alleging a vast conspiracy against him. He vowed to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank and threatened to unleash a war on Gaza militants.
He saved special vitriol for Israel's Arab minority, implying that they were a hostile fifth column out to destroy the nation. He tried, and failed, to pass legislation that would install monitoring cameras in voting booths as he made unfounded claims of fraud in Arab districts. An automated post on his Facebook page claimed Arabs "want to annihilate us all."
Arab leaders accused Netanyahu of racism and trying to intimidate voters to stay home on election day.
The strategy appeared to backfire on many counts. The latest election returns showed a drop of support for Netanyahu's Likud party compared to April's vote. The results indicated that former Likud voters had migrated to other Jewish parties, including to Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu, which nearly doubled its representation.
"He took the polarization one step too far, and I think he's going to pay the price for it," said Aron Shaviv, a campaign strategist who managed Netanyahu's re-election campaign in 2015.
Netanyahu's attacks on Arabs were credited with driving a surge in turnout in Arab towns. The Joint List, an alliance of Arab factions, gained at least two seats and is now poised to be a major player in the next parliament, according to the near-final results.
"Incitement has a price," said Ayman Odeh, leader of the list.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank,...
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